Archive for July, 2008
Jim Cramer quote from morning Joe Today
Jul 31st
Earlier today, Jim Cramer, was on morning joe on msnbc when he uttered this jewel.
“JIMMY CARTER, MAY HE REST IN PEACE”
Problem is, President Carter is alive.
On the subject of death, im sorry to note that Randy Pausch, professor of CS in CMU has passed.
You may know the good doctor from his last lecture, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji5_MqicxSo
I learned more in that hour and 15 minutes, from a professor I NEVER MET, than the majority of my teachers(and let me note here, not mentors) ever taught me.
Your medicine for a broken market: Why I bought SSO today
Jul 29th
First off the good news,
I WAS GRANTED MARGIN
That means I can finally go in and out of stocks like I have always wanted to, and in this volitile market, that is the most valuable thing you can hope for.
The market was set for a turnaround and looking at where oil was going I decided that An investment in the S&P 500 was a good idea.
SSO is a double leveraged etf, so if you apply another 2x layer through margin to it you are getting a BROADLY diversified portfolio, yielding 4x the daily result of the s&p 500. You could also short the market 4x with SDS. Now this may seem like a risky move, but lets consider what could concievably happen in a three day period. Lets say the market moves up 1.3% a day. This would mean that SSO would be yeilding 2.6% a day, with compoundment this would mean that you would have yeilded 8% on a regular portfolio. And 16% on a leveraged 2x portfolio. In otherwords, the market retraces less than 3.9% (Which I believe it will.) and you made 16%. Mind you, the exact opposite could happen, so be careful, and ask an investment advisor before doing anything.
The Riddler in batman three has been announced
Jul 29th
Try that one on for size [[Christopher Nolan]],
Not only will this one give Batman a run for his money, he will also show him how to get a government grant to pay for it.
In all seriousness [[Matthew Lesko]] would rock, I mean think about it, can you figure him out??
I Lauched a neat site today,
Jul 28th
http://wallblog.com/sites/
Check it out, its a link thing, and if you click back to pro blogs, it lanches major sites from where you are.
A hedge to fund yourself with: the $150 oil caution, solar panel makers First Solar (FSLR) and Intel (INTC) might be for you
Jul 26th
So after reading the previous article you may have thought to ask,
“But Jay what happens if the price of oil goes up”
I have a hedge against that right here for you that I’m relatively sure will not go down that much if oil does that will experience a likely 20% gain if oil does rebound.
First Solar design manufactures and sells solar energy modules and Intel has recently gotten into the raquet due to their specialty in chip making anyway. Because these two companies will continue to have customers due to planning and smart (in my opinion) foresight on some peoples accounts. However, should $150 oil become a possibility again, and other energy costs go up with it, for example a continuing rise in oil these companies might be what you would want to be in, in addition to this intel is being used more in more in apple devices, as they can also have windows run on them, as such, if Apple (AAPL) goes up, then Intel (INTC) could easily too.
Im leaving on a jet plane, Northwest Airlines (NWA) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) that is
Jul 26th
All my bags are packed I’m ready to go
I’m standing here outside your door
I hate to wake you up to say goodbye.
But the dawn is breaking it’s early morning
The taxi is waiting, he is blowing his horn
Already I’m so lonesome, I could crySo kiss me and smile for me
Tell me that you wait for me
Hold me like you never let me goI’m leaving on a jetplane,I don’t know when I’ll be back again
Oh babe I hate to go
Oil is on the way down. And it is going to impact the market, now alot of people I have been talking to have been thinking about playing the oil companies, however it is my personal belief that this will not be the best play against falling oil, or even rising oil.
The companies that will be heavily affected the most between here and $110 a barrel oil. Will be the airlines, and as this site is more about maximising gains. I have found what are in my opinion the best positioned stocks to benifit from the reduction in oil prices(and by that affect jet fuel prices). As these companies have already reduced costs outside gas and some with gas with the excuse that it will cost a ton of money to fuel the planes, as the futures market is tumbeling theses excessive fuel costs will be less of an issue and as the market has discounted these companies to the point it seems they are expecting bankruptcy. If these companies can benifit from the reduction in fuel prices enough, then they may experience a truly magnificent stock recovery, somewhere in the realm of 50% in the next month in my estimation
Go Ford (F) yourself
Jul 23rd
Keep an eye on ford for their early pre-market trading earnings announcement tommrow.
The name and the game of this stock will be momentum, and like the suv’s that this company makes, itll be hard to stop.
the stock could be up 20% tommrow on good news, and tank incredibly on bad, so wait for the news, and get in as soon as possible and you may get a good earnings trade.
P.S. anyone else find Todd Harrison annoying
Time to get frugal: Buy the discount
Jul 22nd
“The quality of decision is like the well-timed swoop of a falcon which enables it to strike and destroy its victim.” Sun Tzu
Their are former multibillion dollar stocks trading like penny stocks at the moment, and that aint right,
Say it with me
That aint right
So what is the good idea, there are companies that have been beat down by the derpressing market condition’s but didnt really do anything wrong, so search out any stock that has lost 95% over the last year and didnt invest one dollar in a cdo (preferrably retail). Keep to the major exchanges, post it here and we can all talk about them togeather, if the market rebounds, there could be very good results.
Time to Cover: How bout Dem Apple (aapl)
Jul 21st
If you shorted/stayed out of apple when i said to stay out of it because of the Iphone 3g not being as much as a driver as you thought it was, good job you just saved a bunch of money without even consulting a gekko.
Apple came out today confirming what i was saying.
Now would be the time to start coving your short into the selling tommrow, because there will be a sharp reversal.
I personally will be thinking of buying when the stock hits 135-130 depending on market conditions.
More to come with other stocks.
You might want to consider SDS tommrow: EARNINGS BRIEF
Jul 16th
It is my opinion that you may want to short the market tommrow, as I am expecting the market to have a retracement tommrow. A good choice might be to buy SDS tommrow, as you will double what the market does, this being said, get out of it before close.
I’m not entirely sure what time these are all coming out but here but here are my predictions.
- TD Ameritrade (AMTD) will beat earnings with .35 a share in earnings as opposed to .32
- Coke (KO) will take a hit after failing to meet earnings because of oil and other costs. .91 a share in earnings IMHO
- Microsoft (MSFT) will beat earnings with an eps of .50 this might be from the fallback in a bad economy, blowing up cars with a rocket launcher (In gta. not that gates couldnt afford to do that).
- Google (GOOG) will beat the streets estimate of 4.74 with a compelling 5.00, I am expecting this extra amount from my own data gathering from sources operating websites outside of the United States.
- Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK) could beat earnings because of exchange rates with Dubai etc. 0.75 expected, I’m not sure on this one.
- CIT Group (CIT) may only lose 3.35 a share as opposed to the estimated 3.4, as i think there may be a few unaccounted for $ in earnings they can come up with
- BancorpSouth, Inc. (BXS) will SMASH earnings, judging by my input from friends and family from my native Tennessee. I honestly expect 50 cents a share in earnings.
- Harley-Davidson (HOG) will miss earnings, knowing the people who buy harley’s now adays arent the rough riders, they are the retired doctors and such that may be directly affected by this bad stock market. I expect 65 cents a share as opposed to the streets expected 75
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) may actually do worse than expected but if it does it will only be slight, however that wont matter as much because Dimon has been talking it down long enough that just surviving will send it soaring.
- Merrill Lynch (MER) Will NOT BEAT EARNINGS. Period, if it does, I will post a picture of me wearing a burger king kings hat. THEN I WILL EAT IT.(partially at least)
- Nokia (NOK) will not beat earnings because of increasing material prices and decreasing demand. I expect 50 cents a share.
- PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC) will not beat Earnings due to market situations combined with losses in customer base. I expect 1.10 eps
Id take this time to also get back into apple as I can see it shooting up to 200 from this point.
All of that being said, this market is crazy and im a College student, do as you want, thats what I think is going to happen, If you want some really good advice, I’d suggest reading TheCodyReport as Cody Willard, one of the smartest people I know writes it, and he is rarely wrong (consistantly beating the markets while he managed his fund (bought apple at 7 and google at IPO))
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