Posts tagged Oil
My case for temporary rising oil
Aug 31st
So, lets ignore the fact that there is an incoming cat 4-5 hurricane.
We just used at least 5 million gallons of fuel evacuating (i thought 4 gallons per person leaving N’Orleans would be too little but hey, youd criticize me if i said more), we also have the increase in airfuel usage, transport costs, levy-generator running.
In addition to this, the platforms have shut off 1.5 million barrels a day in production, for about a week, that adds up to 10.5 gallons, so we have a minimum loss before the storm (regardless of storm damage to platforms-refineries) of 15.5 million barrels of oil.
The Long and Short of it: The 10 x Oil = Gold trade.
Aug 12th
In recent days, my trade has been:
If Golds results is not 10x oils results, you may want to play the equlization (on a percentage basis for the year). This is based on my opinion that it is more along the lines of a currency devaluation based selloff, with alittle bit of margin calls added in there for good measure. I personally think that eventually, this will all lead to an actualization of 10 x Oil’s price = Golds price As such, i think an appropriate valuation of oil would be 82.14 in this economy as of writing this. As such, I am long the airlines till 2:30, when the market does this whole, im scared about Russia killing Georgia thing.
News alert Oil is falling
Aug 9th
I have been watching oil, and with all of this added volitility, oil seems like a good subject for a competition.
So, In order to attract more readers, and as a shameless alexa grab, I have decided to offer up an awsometastic $15 gift card (paid for by recent google add clicks), for guessing the closing price of oil next friday. All entries must be in comments section by thursday, however for every market day earlier you guess, you will recive an extra 5 cents in leeway (and yes this means this winning # could be an impossibly good #)
A hedge to fund yourself with: the $150 oil caution, solar panel makers First Solar (FSLR) and Intel (INTC) might be for you
Jul 26th
So after reading the previous article you may have thought to ask,
“But Jay what happens if the price of oil goes up”
I have a hedge against that right here for you that I’m relatively sure will not go down that much if oil does that will experience a likely 20% gain if oil does rebound.
First Solar design manufactures and sells solar energy modules and Intel has recently gotten into the raquet due to their specialty in chip making anyway. Because these two companies will continue to have customers due to planning and smart (in my opinion) foresight on some peoples accounts. However, should $150 oil become a possibility again, and other energy costs go up with it, for example a continuing rise in oil these companies might be what you would want to be in, in addition to this intel is being used more in more in apple devices, as they can also have windows run on them, as such, if Apple (AAPL) goes up, then Intel (INTC) could easily too.
Lehman (LEH) is UNDERVALUED
Jun 6th
The entire speculation on Lehman is based on share price dropping due to the fact that Lehman may be issuing 5b in new shares, the problem with this is if you base this on its share price one month ago, the price should be 37. I will explain it when this crazy market today closes.
Sold off my UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG)
May 29th
I recently went to the trading room at [[Seton Hall]] to hang out for a bit and do research on the [[bloomberg terminal]] and saw “The Finance Professor” [[Scott Rothbort]] when i was alerted to the possibility of a 1.2 billion dollar joint venture to Inverness Medical Innovations (IMA). Now, im not that much often to try to catch a news announcement, because honestly, i have horrible timing. Dont get me wrong my picks are great, but my timing is absolutely horrendous, i waited for a pullback and then managed to pull the trigger about .40 too early, but that’s besides the point. I had been thinking for a few days that Dug might be in store for a retracement, and on top of that I knew that my long delayed paycheck was coming to SIGNIFIGANTLY increase the size of my portfolio(speaking of which, try to save 10% of your paycheck if your near my age, its almost an automatic ticket to retiring very, very wealthy, even with a cautious return.) So i decided to try my hand at catching an earnings play, and it paid off today, but that in a nutshell is why i sold off DUG, for all of my followers i might suggest reducing your position alittle, maybe a fourth or a third, after all, there’s a saying on wall street. Pigs get slaughtered.
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